How to Pick Winners That Drives Increased Profits

2/5/16 11:46AM - 0 comments

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This is why we all gamble.

We work hard for a living, but want to have more money in the bank. We want to buy nicer things, bigger homes, better cars, a nice vacation, but don't have the time or desire for a second job.

So we take what we have earned and we try to grow it.

Now you can go to the stock market and hope Wall Street doesn't crash again.

Or you can go to the Roulette table and bet it all on black.

But the best way to win is by betting on sports. The house does not have a long term edge like they do in Roulette. And with proper research you can be a profitable sports bettor no matter what Wall Street does or what line Vegas gives you.

Here is one of my favorite bets:

Betting against a team in basketball playing a back-to-back. A great example was last night when we picked the Los Angeles Lakers +10.5 against the New Orleans Pelicans. The Pelicans had just gone to San Antonio the night before and were now at home to start off the Mardi Gras celebrations this weekend in New Orleans. They played San Antonio tight all game before fading in the last minutes of the fourth quarter. The Lakers were fresh after an inspired win nights before on the back of Kobe. We took the Lakers +10.5 and they came out in the first quarter on fire up 13-2 to start the game. They went into the half with a 57-48 lead and won the game 99-96. They had the lead for all but 3 minutes and 32 seconds in that 48 minute game and were covering the spread from tip off until the end of the game.

In fact, this was the Pelicans 7th back-to-back game this season and they have only won one of those games all season. We should have taken the Lakers +500ML but felt strongly on a Lakers against the spread (ats) as a 5 unit play.

The Golden State warriors win back-to-back games but play far worse in the back end of a back-to-back. They have played six games in the 2015-2016 season and have won five of the six on the back end of the back-to-back. But when you adjust for home or away and opponents difficulty they have an average adjusted efficiency differential (offensive efficiency-defensive efficiency) of -9. Meaning they will play significantly worse on the second game of a back-to-back even though they may still come away with the win.

One tip I give gamblers in NBA is to identify which teams struggle a lot on the back end of a back-to-back and see if Vegas is properly adjusting for that in the lines they are offering. In this case, last night, they didn't and we cashed big.

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